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If you've found this article on
You understand the basic-basics: media costs money; response rates vary with media vehicle and message; conversion rates are crucial. But how does all that work in Direct Response Radio? |
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You hear the same commercials for the same brands running over, and over, and over again on your own favorite radio stations and wonder, "They must be making money. Can we do that? How?" All those Direct Response Radio commercials stay on the air for the same three reasons: 1) The copy pulls an acceptable response from today's supply of Prospects - people who need something and are willing to shop on-line or by phone. And... 2) The in-bound telemarketers or web-designers convert an acceptable percentage of Inquiry to Sales. And... 3) The media costs are an acceptable percentage of revenues. All three variables - response rate, conversion rate, and media cost have to be in sync. This article explains how all three work together. (Along the way you'll be invited to learn more on how they each work separately.) The Basics of Direct Response Radio Advertising also include three separate management issues, which we'll discuss in turn: This is a longish article. A hard copy might be easier to read. Ctrl + P. The concepts discussed here will help you complete my Free Planning for ROI Excel workbook. Get one before you leave this site. The Basics of Direct Response Radio Advertising.
"Are your credit cards maxed
out? Does your dog shed like crazy? Do you feel tired
and run down? Is the IRS breathing down your neck? Do
you need term life insurance to protect your new family? It is rarely enough to rattle off a list of generic features & benefits. The advertising and the product or service must address real problems shared by a fair number of real people.
Effect Direct Response Radio copy flows from a solid Brand Promise, which in turn flows from succinct, truthful answers to Seven Easy Questions. That process is outlined on Logical Analysis Leading to a Leap of Faith, and will be your first task when you start Planning for ROI. The accuracy of your Communications Strategy and the content of your advertising are more important than the nuances of production. How you decide to execute your Brand Promise depends on several factors, rational and otherwise.
When your Urgent Announcer copy burns out (or if you want to avoid burnout altogether), you might consider running creative that stands out from the Daily Drone. Real People Radio is one option. In any case, if you approve
the copy, it will run at least once.
Direct Response Radio Advertising is a competitive game ill-suited for the faint of heart or thin of wallet. How you measure "approval" and "response" as well as all the other rational workings of Direct Response Radio advertising are the subjects of the next section. Better fire up your hand-calculator! The Basics of Direct Response Radio Advertising.
You must run on stations and programs that deliver a goodly number of people who match your Target Audience Demographics (Exercise II in my Free Planner), and you must run often enough to be heard by this week's Cume Quota. Most DR advertisers use CICO
(pronounced "Chico"): Say you spend $12,500 on media and gross $25,000 in sales. CICO is
2:1. You make 500 sales. Your Average Sale is
$50.00. Your Media Cost per Sale (MCPS) is $25.00. Your Media percentage of Revenue is 50%.
CICO usually says, "Buy cheaper commercials!"
Media Cost per Sale (MCPS or X) is always a function of three dynamic, semi-independent variables, whether you choose to track them or not.
► (M) Media Cost per Gallon. In all Direct Response Radio campaigns GM/C=X. Let's define terms. M Measures True Media Cost. One Gallon of Radio is 1,000 Gross Impressions. If a commercial on WXYZ-AM delivers 6,500 GIMPS (say, among Males aged 25-54) that's 6.5 M25-54 Gallons. If that commercial costs $40, then M is $40/6.5 gallons. M = $6.15. (M) is shorthand for CPM or "Cost per Thousand." It combines two numbers. The dollar number is hard. The Gallons number is soft. Audience numbers come from Arbitron Ratings, which are statistical projections. Arbs are never 100% accurate, but they are useful for comparing stations and projecting today's results forward. For more on Radio Prices, click here. Then come back. At an average M of $6.15, your $12,500 media buy delivers about 2,000 gallons of radio (2 million GIMPS). $12,500 / $6.15 ≈ 2,032. In practice, you might run dozens of commercials a week in several different day parts on 8 to 10 stations covering two or three markets. Add up the hard dollars. Divide by the soft gallons. G Measures Response Rate. How many Inquiries (calls, clicks...) do you get for your $12,500?Say you record 1,750 total calls or clicks. You bought 2,032 gallons of radio. You got 1,750 inquiries. The ratio 2,032 / 1,750 = 1.161. On average, 1.161 gallons produces one inquiry. G = 1.161. Direct Mail advertisers are accustomed to measuring response rate in percentages. You could say your Radio response rate was .0008612 (1,750 Inquiries /2,032,000 GIMPS, or .08612 (1,750 Inqs / 2,032 Gals). Or would that be .08612% and 8.612%? Which of the four possible mispronunciations would you prefer? Gallons per Inquiry avoids all such confusion. Pluswise, if that's a word, if you buy media by the gallon it makes sense to measure response by the gallon, eh? Your Cost per Call or Inquiry (CPC or CPI) is obviously $12,500 / 1,750 = $7.14. Since each gallon costs $6.15, your cost per call was also G x M. $12,500 / 1,750 = $7.14 Note also that myriad combinations of G and M will produce the same Cost Per Call. The stronger the commercial (low G), the more expensive and popular stations, day parts, and programs you can buy. The weaker the commercial (high G) the lower the M you can afford.
C Measures Conversion Rate. You converted 500 inquiries to sales. So your conversion rate was 500 / 1,750 = 28.6%. C = .286. Direct Response Radio Conversion exercises so much leverage on MCPS that I've given the subject its own separate article. It behooves you to read it before you spend nickel one. X Measures Media Cost per Sale. MCPS must be an acceptable, affordable percentage of revenues, or you'll be out of business fairly soon.
$12,500 / 500 = $25.00. Unfortunately, he can't tell you why.
(1.161 x $6.15) / .286 = $25.00. Fortunately, I can.
M is a function of advertiser demand, market size, day part, recent Arbitron ratings, the size of the buy, extra bonus spots, negotiation... What's your MCPS if you buy a much cheaper $15 spot with a smaller audience and M = $7.85? G is a function of commercial appeal, Cume Quota (how many shoppers are available this week), day part, audience demos, effective frequency... What's your MCPS if your Urgent Announcer copy burns out and G rises to 2.732? C is a function of how well your telemarketers or web designers can convert momentary curiosity into firm resolve. What's your MCPS if C drops to 24.3%? What if all three variables actually vary? (2.732 x $7.85) / .243 = ??? Yikes!
If you're algebraically inclined, you'll note that in the equation GM/C=X any three known values define the fourth. In a test market, for example, you pull G = 1.732 and C = .317. But your Target X is 38% or $19.00. You need to buy cheaper gas, eh? Rollout M = CX/G. (.317 x $19.00 / 1.732 = ??? If you're algebraically besotted, the pic below opens a page of Pure Rapture! The Basics of Direct Response Radio Advertising. Without a Budget and a Deadline there is no Reality.
Assume you sell a World-Beating Product or Service for $195.00. You've run some TV or newspaper ads, and your in-bound TMs convert about 28% of calls to sales. Half of your first-time customers buy a second time. Of them, 85% buy a third, fourth...nth time and generate about $600 in additional sales. A hundred customers will, therefore, generate about $55,000 in Total Downstream Revenue.
Here are three questions for you: 1. How much should you spend in Direct Response Radio to acquire one additional first-time customer? 2. What will be your Year I Radio Budget? 3. How much should you spend to Test Radio before committing to some ungodly expensive buy? The answers to all three questions, and to several others, will appear in black and white when you complete the Budget page of my Free Planning for ROI Excel workbook. Get one before you leave this site. The specific budget for any brand will evolve over time on a pay-as-you go basis. So the answer to Question 2 is, "It depends..." But at your price point and initial conversion rate, I'd recommend you start out budgeting 38% of the Total Downstream Value of a new customer. If you wanted to generate, say, an additional $1.8MM in Year I revenues, you'll need to attract about 3,400 new customers and about 12,000 inquiries. Simple arithmetic (thank goodness for spreadsheets, eh?):
Why on earth would you spend $208 to make a $195 sale? Because the average first time customer generates about $550 in revenue! (By the way, you might spend some of that $208 on reminder emails, postcards and the like.) What would have to happen to hit that Target X of $208 in Radio? Let's say you run some hard-hitting Urgent Announcer copy in remnant radio, at $3.50 per gallon, or on Sirius/XM at $2.15, or in local buy-direct-from-the-station at the aforementioned $6.15. Your breakeven G in each case (G = CX/M) would be:
Those look like pretty easy Targets. On Sirius/XM you need only one call for every 27 gallons! But let's say we test some Real People Radio on a few local stations and cut breakeven G by a third, to 6.252. We run those spots in remnant and on Sirius/XM at much lower CPMs, and you get the same response:
At the same C and G your Media Cost per Sale drops rather dramatically to an average of 16%! So after suitable testing, you can rewrite the initial media Budget:
Question 3. How much should you spend to Test Radio? For how long? On what stations or networks
and in which markets? How much will creative
and production cost ("What! They're not Free?")? The short answer is that you should spend about half your Month I budget to Test Radio. The exact answer is... well, if you've come this far, you know where all the answers are: Most entrepreneurs and brand managers heartily embrace my approach to Communications Strategy. A few are a little unnerved by my Executions ("They're, well... different."), despite my track record of proven effectiveness. But most prefer me to do the GM/C=X number crunching. After all, it involves sixth grade arithmetic. And Sixth Grade happened a long, long time ago. But Direct Response Radio Advertising is primarily a Numbers Game. And numbers don't lie. My number is (407) 895-3092.
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Advanced Concept: The longer the time lapse between Initial Inquiry |
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© 2010 PETER A. BURKHARD (407) 895-3092) peter@burkhardworks.com |